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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2019-09-07 18:14:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1630 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 071614 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 1630 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 1630Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gabrielle (AT3/AL082019)

2019-09-07 18:13:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GABRIELLE'S CENTER RE-FORMS FARTHER WEST... As of 12:30 PM AST Sat Sep 7 the center of Gabrielle was located near 31.4, -45.2 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Public Advisory Number 17

2019-09-07 18:13:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1230 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071613 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Special Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1230 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...GABRIELLE'S CENTER RE-FORMS FARTHER WEST... SUMMARY OF 1230 PM AST...1630 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 45.2W ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1230 PM AST (1630 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 45.2 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected to begin by this evening and continue through Sunday. Gabrielle is then forecast to recurve toward the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 17

2019-09-07 18:13:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1630 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071613 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019 1630 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 45.2W AT 07/1630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 20SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 45.2W AT 07/1630Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 46.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.0N 48.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.4N 47.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.5N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 45.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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