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Hurricane Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-08-25 10:46:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 250846 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 1(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 2(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 4(15) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 3(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 3(19) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 13(25) 14(39) 3(42) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 4(22) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 7(18) 8(26) 3(29) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 10(31) 3(34) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 8(19) 5(24) 4(28) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 13(30) 6(36) 3(39) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 12(30) 9(39) 2(41) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 3 25(28) 8(36) 10(46) 18(64) 8(72) X(72) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 1(21) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 2 31(33) 12(45) 11(56) 15(71) 4(75) 1(76) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 4(16) X(16) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 1 22(23) 22(45) 13(58) 12(70) 1(71) X(71) AUSTIN TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 41(42) 21(63) 9(72) 11(83) 1(84) X(84) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 10(21) 6(27) X(27) 1(28) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 14 53(67) 6(73) 8(81) 10(91) 2(93) X(93) FREEPORT TX 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 13(29) 7(36) X(36) FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 5(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 34 85 5(90) 1(91) 2(93) 4(97) X(97) 1(98) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 17(31) 12(43) 1(44) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 11(23) X(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 9(11) 8(19) 10(29) 16(45) 10(55) 1(56) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 1(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 48 47(95) 1(96) 1(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 1 22(23) 7(30) 10(40) 19(59) 4(63) X(63) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 12(28) 5(33) X(33) PORT O CONNOR 34 77 22(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 60(62) 6(68) 9(77) 11(88) 1(89) X(89) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 29(29) 8(37) 7(44) 15(59) 3(62) X(62) ROCKPORT TX 34 83 17(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 4 88(92) 3(95) 1(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) ROCKPORT TX 64 1 75(76) 6(82) 2(84) 3(87) 1(88) X(88) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 64 35(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 2 79(81) 4(85) 1(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 54(54) 7(61) 1(62) 8(70) 1(71) X(71) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 94 2(96) X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 270N 960W 64 78 4(82) 1(83) 1(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) MCALLEN TX 34 3 10(13) 7(20) 8(28) 25(53) 5(58) X(58) MCALLEN TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 12 12(24) 7(31) 6(37) 25(62) 5(67) 1(68) HARLINGEN TX 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 11(18) 4(22) X(22) HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 10 8(18) 6(24) 6(30) 25(55) 6(61) 1(62) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 9(14) 5(19) X(19) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 17(30) 10(40) 1(41) GFMX 250N 960W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-25 10:46:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 08:46:33 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 20
2017-08-25 10:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250846 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017 ...HURRICANE HARVEY DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 95.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 95.4 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force planes was 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause devastating and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area later this morning. These conditions are likely to persist into Saturday in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey will begin to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts later this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the middle and upper Texas coast on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 20
2017-08-25 10:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250845 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION... INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 95.4W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 95.4W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.9N 96.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.0N 97.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.3N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 95.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-25 09:51:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...3 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE... As of 3:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 the center of Harvey was located near 25.8, -95.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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