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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 16

2017-08-24 16:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 93.3W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Matagorda to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 10 ft Sargent to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-08-24 16:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 14:54:13 GMT

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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 16

2017-08-24 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241454 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION... INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 93.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 93.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 93.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-24 13:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HARVEY STRENGTHENING... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 the center of Harvey was located near 23.8, -93.0 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 15A

2017-08-24 13:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HARVEY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 93.0W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Matagorda to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by a reconnaissance plane near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 93.0 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the southern Texas coast on Friday. An Air Force Reserve aircraft reports that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over the Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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