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Hurricane Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2017-08-24 17:27:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 15:27:21 GMT
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Hurricane Harvey Graphics
2017-08-24 16:59:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 14:59:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 15:22:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-08-24 16:55:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241455 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is quickly strengthening, and the cyclone's structure has improved markedly with the plane reporting a closed 15-20 n mi wide eye. The flight-level and SFMR winds support an intensity of 55 kt, but one of the more notable measurements is the central pressure, which has fallen to 982 mb. With a pressure this low, it is likely that the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey probably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane. With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow is expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What's more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Aircraft fixes indicate that Harvey has turned toward the north- northwest, and the initial motion estimate is 340/9 kt. A mid- level high centered near Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should force Harvey toward the northwest later today, with that trajectory continuing for the next couple of days. By 48 hours, the cyclone appears to get sandwiched between the same mid-level high over the Gulf of Mexico and a larger high over the Intermountain West, which will cause Harvey to slow down considerably during its approach toward the Texas coast and then potentially stall just inland on days 3 through 5. Mainly based on an adjustment of the initial position, the NHC forecast track has been nudged northeastward on this cycle, but it still lies relatively close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Key Messages: 1. Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 10 feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. 3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 24.0N 93.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-24 16:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 the center of Harvey was located near 24.0, -93.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-08-24 16:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 241454 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 12(25) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 8(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 9(19) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 6(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 10(25) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 11(26) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 5(22) 7(29) 8(37) 14(51) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 3(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 5(21) 7(28) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 8(21) 6(27) 10(37) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 7(25) 7(32) 12(44) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 9(23) 6(29) 6(35) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 15(23) 11(34) 7(41) 8(49) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 14(25) 9(34) 8(42) 9(51) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 32(36) 22(58) 8(66) 9(75) 4(79) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 6(24) 8(32) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 33(58) 10(68) 8(76) 4(80) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 4(25) 4(29) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 39(46) 17(63) 8(71) 1(72) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 2(23) 2(25) AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 43(53) 13(66) 6(72) 1(73) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 1 4( 5) 53(58) 20(78) 6(84) 5(89) 2(91) FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 8(38) 8(46) 7(53) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 4(21) 5(26) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 28(29) 53(82) 5(87) 2(89) 4(93) 1(94) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 29(31) 7(38) 5(43) 8(51) 8(59) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 4(20) 7(27) 9(36) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 2( 3) 19(22) 19(41) 10(51) 9(60) 6(66) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 7(22) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 5( 6) 66(72) 18(90) 4(94) 2(96) 1(97) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 31(55) 8(63) 8(71) 3(74) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 7(38) 6(44) 4(48) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 6( 7) 75(82) 14(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 40(41) 34(75) 6(81) 4(85) 2(87) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 7(57) 5(62) 3(65) ROCKPORT TX 34 1 6( 7) 74(81) 15(96) 1(97) 1(98) X(98) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 41(42) 34(76) 6(82) 2(84) 1(85) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 20(20) 34(54) 6(60) 3(63) 1(64) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 5( 6) 65(71) 19(90) 3(93) 1(94) 1(95) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 29(30) 30(60) 6(66) 3(69) 2(71) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 5(43) 3(46) 2(48) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 72(73) 25(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 21(21) 69(90) 3(93) X(93) 2(95) X(95) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 6( 6) 68(74) 5(79) 1(80) 2(82) 2(84) MCALLEN TX 34 1 3( 4) 18(22) 12(34) 7(41) 12(53) 8(61) MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 6(16) 5(21) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 7( 8) 33(41) 8(49) 5(54) 10(64) 8(72) HARLINGEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 8(23) 7(30) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 14(15) 27(42) 6(48) 5(53) 9(62) 9(71) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 8(22) 7(29) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 47(49) 4(53) 2(55) 2(57) 6(63) 7(70) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 10(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 6(19) 7(26) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 6(16) 6(22) TAMPICO MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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