je.st
news
Tag: harvey
Hurricane Harvey Graphics
2017-08-24 22:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 20:51:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 21:26:02 GMT
Tags: graphics
harvey
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-08-24 22:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 24 Aug 2017 20:47:06 GMT
Tags: map
storm
harvey
hurricane
Hurricane Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-08-24 22:46:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242046 TCDAT4 Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Since the issuance of the special advisory at 1800 UTC, data from a dropsonde released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that Harvey's central pressure has dropped to 976 mb. However, the plane has not measured winds stronger than what was observed by the previous Air Force flight (although the NOAA P3 is flying a research mission at a nonstandard level). For now, the initial intensity will remain 75 kt pending data from another Air Force flight this evening. Harvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. A strengthening mid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push Harvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest motion should continue up until landfall. However, a stronger mid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast to cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just inland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4. After that time, the track models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly eastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48 hours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much greater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast to slow down. Such guidance is usually an indication that the cyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official forecast. Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening. Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next 12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday. There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48 hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3 through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this part of the forecast. It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. 3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 24.7N 93.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 25.5N 94.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 26.7N 96.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1800Z 29.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
harvey
Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 17
2017-08-24 20:06:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241805 CCB TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Corrected for extension of Storm Surge Warning ...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northeast of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Matagorda to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
harvey
Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-08-24 20:05:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241804 CCA TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1800 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF STORM SURGE WARNING CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION... INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 93.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 93.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
harvey
Sites : [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] next »