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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-08-24 10:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 240855 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 6( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 1(17) 1(18) 3(21) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 2(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 15(18) 17(35) 4(39) 3(42) 4(46) 4(50) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 3(18) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 6(21) 3(24) 4(28) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 7(21) 5(26) 4(30) 3(33) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 4(22) 3(25) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 7(27) 5(32) 2(34) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 6(29) 5(34) 2(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X 7( 7) 20(27) 16(43) 8(51) 6(57) 2(59) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X 4( 4) 15(19) 16(35) 11(46) 7(53) 2(55) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 20(39) 6(45) 2(47) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 22(47) 10(57) 1(58) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FREEPORT TX 34 X 8( 8) 24(32) 22(54) 10(64) 6(70) 2(72) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 5(22) 2(24) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 20(21) 38(59) 13(72) 4(76) 5(81) 2(83) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 4(26) 5(31) 4(35) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 2(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 5( 5) 16(21) 11(32) 8(40) 5(45) 4(49) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 9( 9) 29(38) 28(66) 7(73) 7(80) 2(82) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 9(29) 6(35) 3(38) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 9( 9) 34(43) 30(73) 9(82) 5(87) 1(88) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 9(39) 9(48) 3(51) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 2(19) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 9( 9) 34(43) 33(76) 8(84) 4(88) 1(89) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 12(46) 8(54) 1(55) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) 4(22) 1(23) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 8( 8) 32(40) 31(71) 11(82) 4(86) 1(87) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 11(41) 7(48) 1(49) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 2(18) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 32(34) 48(82) 10(92) 2(94) 1(95) X(95) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 39(41) 21(62) 4(66) 2(68) 2(70) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 3(31) 3(34) 2(36) MCALLEN TX 34 X 8( 8) 21(29) 16(45) 7(52) 8(60) 4(64) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 13(14) 30(44) 14(58) 7(65) 5(70) 4(74) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 5(22) 3(25) 4(29) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 17(18) 32(50) 10(60) 6(66) 4(70) 5(75) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 3(23) 4(27) 4(31) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 5 53(58) 15(73) 2(75) 2(77) 2(79) 2(81) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 14(14) 18(32) 1(33) X(33) 2(35) 3(38) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) 2(13) LA PESCA MX 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 4(17) 4(21) 5(26) TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 3(13) TUXPAN MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 15
2017-08-24 10:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...HARVEY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 92.8W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield south to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Matagorda. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Matagorda to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch has been issued from south of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Matagorda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Matagorda to High Island * South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas to Boca de Catan Mexico. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by reconaissance planes near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the southern Texas coast on Friday. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft report that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Harvey is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over the Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass...5 to 7 ft San Luis Pass to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-08-24 10:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240854 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0900 UTC THU AUG 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE... TEXAS TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION... INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 92.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 92.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 92.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 93.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 30SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.1N 94.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.3N 95.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.5N 97.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.5N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 92.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 14A
2017-08-24 07:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 100 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND HARVEY A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 92.6W ABOUT 465 MI...740 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Warnings will likely be required for portions of the watch area this morning. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located by NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Harvey is now moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast on Friday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km) to the northeast of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hurricane Hunter planes was 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Wednesday, with heavy rainfall beginning Friday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches along its outer radius including parts of south, central, and eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-24 06:03:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... As of 11:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 the center of Harvey was located near 22.0, -92.6 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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