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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 19

2017-08-25 04:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250234 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION...INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 94.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 94.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

2017-08-25 01:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 the center of Harvey was located near 25.0, -94.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Harvey Public Advisory Number 18A

2017-08-25 01:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242359 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength over the past few hours, strengthening is expected to resume during the next few hours, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause devastating and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the middle and upper Texas coast on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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