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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics

2015-10-05 19:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 17:44:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 15:05:45 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-05 19:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOAQUIN MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Oct 5 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 35.2, -64.5 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 32A

2015-10-05 19:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051743 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 200 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 64.5W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 64.5 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Joaquin is expected to transition to a large extratropical low pressure system on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind speed of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could affect Bermuda for a few more hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels near Bermuda should gradually subside today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and potentially damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and will spread northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics

2015-10-05 17:09:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 14:40:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 15:05:45 GMT

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

2015-10-05 16:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 051438 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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