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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 31A
2015-10-05 13:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051141 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 800 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 ...JOAQUIN BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 64.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located by satellite and Bermuda radar data near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 64.6 West. Joaquin is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will continue to move away from Bermuda today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind speed of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Bermuda this morning. STORM SURGE: Water levels should gradually subside today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and potentially damaging waves. RAINFALL: Rain will diminish across Bermuda this morning as Joaquin moves away from the area. SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and will spread northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Graphics
2015-10-05 11:09:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 08:53:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2015 09:05:45 GMT
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-10-05 10:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050854 TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 The weakening that Joaquin has experienced during the past day or so appears to have temporarily stopped overnight. Deep convection has increased near the center, and an eye has intermittently been seen infrared satellite pictures. The initial wind speed of 75 kt is based on recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. Only a slight reduction in strength is expected during the next day or so while Joaquin remains within an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear and over sea surface temperatures of around 27C. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause gradual weakening. Joaquin is expected to interact with a baroclinic zone in a couple of days and become an extratropical cyclone within 72 hours. The global models slowly weaken the extratropical low as it moves eastward over the central and eastern Atlantic later this week. The initial motion estimate is 025/11 kt. Joaquin should turn northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed by tonight as a ridge to the northeast of the hurricane weakens. Joaquin should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies in 36 to 48 hours and accelerate east-northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The track of the extratropical low is a blend of the previous advisory and guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The tropical storm force wind radii have been expanded outward based on earlier ASCAT data. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 34.1N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 38.6N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.9N 50.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 42.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 43.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 45.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2015-10-05 10:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 050853 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-10-05 10:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOAQUIN EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 5 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 34.1, -65.2 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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