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Hurricane JOAQUIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

2015-10-06 04:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 060250 PWSAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Summary for Hurricane JOAQUIN (AT1/AL112015)

2015-10-06 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 5 the center of JOAQUIN was located near 36.8, -62.7 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Public Advisory Number 34

2015-10-06 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015 ...JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 62.7W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 62.7 West. Joaquin is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). The hurricane should accelerate while turning toward the east-northeast during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Joaquin is anticipated to become an extratropical cyclone on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect Bermuda and portions of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting much of the east coast of the United States and the coast of Atlantic Canada and should continue during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is located well to the east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 34

2015-10-06 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060249 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 62.7W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 62.7W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 63.4W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.1N 59.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 39.6N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 47.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.0N 38.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 45.0N 23.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 46.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 48.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 62.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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