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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-22 23:10:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222109 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Corrected status at 48H (24/1800Z) Mario has maintained its reprieve from discontinuance of advisories, with a few thunderstorms persisting to the west of the low-level center. This continues to barely support tropical cyclone status. Assuming that this convection dissipates soon, the cyclone could degenerate into remnant low by early Monday. The system is likely to dissipate completely in a couple of days. Mario continues to move north-northwestward, or 345 at 9 kt. The cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone and make landfall over the south-central Baja California on Tuesday as a very weak system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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discussion
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tropical
Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Advisory Number 22
2019-09-22 23:08:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 222108 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 CORRECTED STATUS AT 24/1800Z THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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mario
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tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Mario (EP4/EP142019)
2019-09-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 22.9, -112.4 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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mario
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Mario Public Advisory Number 22
2019-09-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 222039 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 112.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 112.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center will move inland over the south-central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should degenerate into a remnant low later overnight. The low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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public
mario
advisory
Tropical Depression Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2019-09-22 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 222039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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