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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-13 22:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132043 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation, although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as a tropical depression with 25 kt winds. Conditions are not ideal for strengthening since the depression is still embedded within a moderate shear environment, but this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt additional development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system to become a tropical storm on Saturday with gradual intensification thereafter. Global models insist on further development, and the reliable guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach hurricane intensity in about 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast. By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic waters well southeast of the coast of the Carolinas. Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the western edge of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours and will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. The system could still bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida east coast. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North Carolina early next week continues to diminish. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 25.6N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 26.2N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 28.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 30.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 32.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine (AT4/AL092019)
2019-09-13 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Nine was located near 25.6, -75.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-09-13 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132042 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 74.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.2N 76.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.4N 77.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.8N 78.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 78.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 75.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-13 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 132042 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 75.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east of the east coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are still possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches. The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South Carolina...2 to 4 inches. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2019-09-12 16:57:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 14:57:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2019 15:24:41 GMT
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