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Home › edouard

 

Tag: edouard

Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics

2014-09-12 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 02:33:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 02:31:44 GMT

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2014-09-12 04:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 120232 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-09-12 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120232 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard, the fifth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on satellite estimates of T2.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB, SAB and UW CIMSS. The cloud pattern is now more symmetric with the low-level center embedded within the deep convection. The upper-level outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere. Although the atmospheric environment--including increasing wind shear--is not ideal for strengthening, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalous warm waters in the north central Atlantic during the next few days. This will likely aid the intensification process, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11 knots. The subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone on that general track is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a large mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. This new pattern should force Edouard to turn northward by the end of the forecast period, and eventually to recurve over the open Atlantic. There is confidence in the northward turn since that is the solution of most of the track guidance. The NHC forecast follows very close the multi-model consensus TVCA and an average of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.3N 39.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 19.0N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 20.3N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 21.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 3

2014-09-12 04:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 39.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 39.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N 41.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.0N 43.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.3N 45.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 27.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 39.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

2014-09-12 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 11 the center of EDOUARD was located near 17.3, -39.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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