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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-09-12 16:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121433 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 The cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data suggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective numbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity is confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level outflow has improved. Most of the global models as well as SHIPS suggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days. In addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously warm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated in the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity consensus model ICON. The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered by the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to 4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06 to 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes near and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by global models to help with the initialization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 18.5N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 19.2N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 23.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-12 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 12 the center of EDOUARD was located near 18.5, -43.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 5
2014-09-12 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 ...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 43.0W ABOUT 1315 MI...2120 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-09-12 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 121432 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-09-12 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 121432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 43.0W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 43.0W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.2N 44.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 50.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 43.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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