je.st
news
Tag: edouard
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-09-13 04:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130255 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 Edouard's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since the last advisory. Moderately strong south-southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, as evidenced by the center location near the southern edge of the main convective mass in microwave imagery. However, convective cloud top temperatures have cooled some, and the upper-level outflow has expanded to the north and west. Dvorak intensity estimates range from T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while an earlier AMSU estimate suggested an intensity of around 45 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. The center of Edouard was relocated a bit to the south and west based on a 2113 UTC Windsat overpass. That pass, in combination with previous fixes, suggests an initial motion estimate of 295/11. Edouard should move generally west-northwestward for the next few days under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. In about 3 days, the cyclone should reach a significant break in the the same ridge and gradually turn northward between 55-58w with some decrease in forward speed. The cyclone should accelerate northeastward once it becomes embedded in deep-layer westerly flow over the north Atlantic toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one through 72 hours due to the the center relocation and a westward trend in the track guidance this cycle. The track forecast lies on the right side of the guidance envelope through 3 days and is near the center of it after that, close to the multi-model consensus. Edouard has been moving through a sheared environment over the tropical Atlantic, characterized by strong low- to mid-level easterly trades and southerly flow aloft. Global models generally forecast a reduction of this shear after another day or so, when upper-level anticyclonic flow develops over the storm. In a couple of days, upper-level troughs to the east and west of Edouard could allow the formation of dual outflow channels while the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures around 30 deg C. This should allow intensification to hurricane strength. After recurvature, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which should allow Edouard to maintain its intensity until it encounters increasing shear and cooler waters by day 5. The NHC wind speed forecast is nearly unchanged relative to the previous, except to show a slightly higher peak intensity in agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 19.5N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 20.4N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 23.1N 50.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 24.6N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 56.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 32.2N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-09-13 04:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 130253 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-09-13 04:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 130252 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.2W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 45.2W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.4N 46.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.6N 53.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.9N 56.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 32.2N 56.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 45.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-12 23:13:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 20:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 12 Sep 2014 21:06:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
edouard
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-12 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 122036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft dropped a sonde and measured a minimum pressure of 999 mb with 23 kt near the center of Edouard. This leads to a minimum central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Another sonde measured surface winds of 40 kt confirming earlier ASCAT data, and this value will be used as the initial intensity. After some disruption of the cloud pattern a couple of hours ago, satellite images indicate that there is some reorganization going on at this time. It appears that the shear has begun to weaken and the outflow is expanding. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual strengthening, and this is consistent with the decrease in shear, and the fact that Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously warm water during the next few days. The NHC forecast is similar to the intensity consensus ICON. Edouard has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11 kt during the past few hours. Global models show an expansion of the subtropical ridge to the north, and this pattern should force the cyclone to move on a general west-northwest to northwest track during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken, and a gradual turn to the north is anticipated. There is high confidence on the northward turn over open Atlantic since the dynamical guidance is tightly packed. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus TVCA and the average of the ECMWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.5N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 21.8N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 23.2N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 37.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] next »