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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-09-14 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 140851 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-09-14 10:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140851 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0900 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 49.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 49.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 49.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-14 05:12:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2014 02:39:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2014 03:06:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-14 04:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140239 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 The compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more organized during the evening. A low- to mid-level eye-like feature has intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206 GMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced slightly to the south of the mid-level center. The intensity has been increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from TAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind vectors of 49-51 kt. Upper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser degree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear. Intensification is expected due to a more conducive environment, with the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air, primarily to the south and east of Edouard. The intensity guidance, particularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this cycle. The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the first 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the consensus aid IVCN. By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while extratropical transition occurs. Edouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the estimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable run-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles. Edouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track for the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been changed substantially and remains very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 32.2N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 42.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-09-14 04:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 140236 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BEVEN
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