je.st
news
Tag: edouard
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-13 22:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132040 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Convection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The cloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair toward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in combination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard, should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The intensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone's motion is being controlled by the subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge is a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on a west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move eastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi- model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the cyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several model cycles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 27.6N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 31.0N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 36.0N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-13 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 13 the center of EDOUARD was located near 22.5, -47.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
edouard
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 10
2014-09-13 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 ...EDOUARD FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 47.5W ABOUT 1050 MI...1695 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-09-13 22:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 132039 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-09-13 22:38:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132038 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC SAT SEP 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 47.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 47.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.7N 49.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.6N 55.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 57.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 36.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 47.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] next »