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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2014-09-12 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 122035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)

2014-09-12 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EDOUARD FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 12 the center of EDOUARD was located near 19.5, -44.1 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 6

2014-09-12 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 122035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 ...EDOUARD FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 44.1W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE GLOBAL HAWK UNMANNED AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 6

2014-09-12 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 122035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.1W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.1W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.8N 47.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 37.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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