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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-24 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 14:41:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 14:41:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-24 16:41:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 14:41:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 15:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-24 16:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241440 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Laura's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat since yesterday, however, there has been a recent increase in convection near the center, and a large band over the southern periphery of the circulation. It appears that the combination of land interaction, moderate northerly shear, and some dry air has caused the change in structure. NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft have reported several believable SFMR winds in the 45-50 kt range and a minimum pressure of around 1002 kt. Based on these observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt. Laura is forecast to pass over the very warm water of the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of the coast of Cuba today, and some modest strengthening is possible before the center moves over the western portion of Cuba this evening. Laura is then forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight where a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and a favorable upper-level environment are expected to allow for steady strengthening. Given the very conducive upper-level wind pattern depicted by the global models, a period of rapid strengthening is possible once Laura re-organizes an inner core after its passage over western Cuba. The regional hurricane models remain quite bullish on intensification, and the GFS and UKMET models indicate significant deepening while Laura moves over the Gulf of Mexico. The statistical guidance is not as aggressive, and the NHC forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids which lie between the higher solutions of the regional models and the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Laura has been moving on a steady west-northwestward track over the past day or so, and the initial motion estimate is 285/17 kt. The deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, and this should keep Laura on a west-northwestward heading through Tuesday. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States should produce a break in the ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico. Laura should turn northwestward Tuesday night in response to the break in the ridge, and the storm is expected to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Wednesday night. The cyclone should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by day 4, and Laura or its remnants should recurve to the northeast and east-northeast by the end of the period. Although the track guidance is in somewhat better agreement today, there remains some cross-track spread by day 3, with the UKMET showing landfall well southwest of the official forecast. The NHC track is close to the various consensus aids and leans toward the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today. 2. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts from the upper Texas coast through the north- central Gulf Coast beginning on Wednesday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Laura and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, as storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.2N 80.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 22.2N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 23.6N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 25.2N 88.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 26.8N 91.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 28.7N 92.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1200Z 36.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1200Z 37.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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laura
Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 16:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER JAMAICA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 21.2, -80.6 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-08-24 16:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 241440 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 11 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 16 7(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NAPLES FL 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 2(23) X(23) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 2(29) X(29) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 17(31) 1(32) X(32) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 32(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) X(27) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 29(38) 1(39) X(39) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 54(64) 23(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 23(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) X(32) X(32) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 3(52) X(52) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 1(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 8(62) X(62) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 5(27) X(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 57(64) 4(68) X(68) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 3(33) X(33) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 55(64) 3(67) X(67) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 3(33) X(33) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 43(79) 1(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 43(55) 1(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 11(46) X(46) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 55(57) 7(64) 1(65) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 61(66) 5(71) X(71) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 4(41) X(41) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 60(75) 2(77) X(77) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 2(49) X(49) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 8(59) X(59) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) X(27) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 48(51) 5(56) X(56) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 5(64) X(64) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 4(34) X(34) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) 2(51) X(51) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 5(36) X(36) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 2(30) X(30) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 48(52) 3(55) X(55) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 34(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 72 10(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) HAVANA 50 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 81 7(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLE OF PINES 50 27 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ISLE OF PINES 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 14(28) 1(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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