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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-24 22:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 242045 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 17(25) X(25) X(25) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 22(32) 1(33) X(33) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 17(35) 1(36) X(36) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 18(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 31(46) 1(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 53(82) 7(89) X(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 46(59) 1(60) X(60) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 37(65) X(65) X(65) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 61(67) 2(69) X(69) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 57(74) X(74) X(74) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 51(73) 1(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 1(43) X(43) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 51(61) 21(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 23(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 17(34) 1(35) X(35) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 3(48) X(48) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 61(68) 2(70) X(70) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 1(44) X(44) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 61(75) 1(76) X(76) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 49(51) 1(52) X(52) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 48(82) 1(83) X(83) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 47(55) 1(56) X(56) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 2(62) X(62) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) X(37) X(37) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 50(57) 2(59) X(59) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 53(64) 2(66) X(66) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 31(50) 1(51) X(51) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 2(36) X(36) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 17(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 44(55) 1(56) X(56) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 14 30(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HAVANA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-24 22:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has improved somewhat with deep convection remaining over the center, and an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, however, indicated that there has been little change in strength today, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt. These observations have shown the the stronger winds are located in the convective band well east and southeast of the center, and that the system currently lacks an inner core. This is likely the reason that Laura has not been able to strengthen while it has moved over water today. The aircraft also reported a fairly stable minimum pressure of 1001-1003 mb during its mission this morning and early afternoon. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these solutions and is close to the consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is 290/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next day or so. By early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to erode the western portion of the ridge, which should cause Laura to turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast. After landfall, Laura or its remnants are expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve over the eastern U.S. on days 4 and 5. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 60 h is around 90 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of storm surge and hurricane watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday. 4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Laura was located near 21.7, -82.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 20
2020-08-24 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 ...CENTER OF LAURA PASSING NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 82.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from south of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas and from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar Texas to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Bolivar to San Luis Pass Texas * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 82.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will cross western Cuba this evening and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight. Laura is then forecast to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is foreast to become a hurricane by late Tuesday. Additional strengthening is forecast on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the northeast and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island TX to Morgan City LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, and Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to High Island TX...4-6 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations into tonight: Western Jamaica, Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From Wednesday afternoon into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in western Cuba through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and the coast of the Florida panhandle on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible through tonight across the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-24 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 619 WTNT23 KNHC 242044 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND LAKE BORGNE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS AND FROM MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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