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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-23 23:13:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232113 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Corrected rainfall statement ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued. The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Haiti * Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-23 22:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Aug 2020 20:57:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Aug 2020 21:24:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-23 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232055 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Satellite imagery and radar data from eastern Cuba show that the center of Laura has been moving over water between Haiti and eastern Cuba this afternoon. There has been a recent uptick in convection near the center and the radar imagery has shown an increase in banding. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Laura this afternoon has reported a minimum pressure that has fallen to around 1000 mb, and winds to support an intensity of 50 kt. The plane very recently found a small area of stronger flight-level winds, but these winds may be associated with mesocyclone, and not representative of the large scale circulation. Laura continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 285/18 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory. Laura should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge that is forecast to build westward across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. The track guidance has continued to edge southward for the portion of the forecast near Cuba, and the NHC forecast has again been moved in that direction. Laura should continue moving west-northwestward over the southeastern Gulf on Tuesday, but a turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday night as the cyclone nears the western portion of the ridge. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion should then continue around the western portion of the ridge until the cyclone reaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The latest run of the ECMWF has shifted significantly eastward, however its ensemble mean and many of the stronger ensemble members remain farther west as a stronger cyclone is likely to be steered more westward by the deep-layer ridge. The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF remain close to the previous NHC track, so little change was made to the official forecast was made after 48 hours. The intensity forecast during the next 24 hours is highly dependent on the track and the amount of interaction Laura has with Cuba. If the storm stays along the southern coast or just offshore, the environment of warm water and low vertical wind shear could allow for some slight strengthening, but little overall change in intensity is indicated during the next 24 hours. After the center clears western Cuba, the upper-level wind pattern is predicted to quite favorable while the storm traverses the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, UKMET, and regional hurricane models all indicate significant deepening, and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward. Although not explicitly shown, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast at the longer range as winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Haiti, Cuba, and Jamaica through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA 24H 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-08-23 22:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 232055 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) X(21) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) 2(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) 1(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 5(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 5(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 18(37) 1(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 15(43) 1(44) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 25(49) 2(51) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 22(48) 2(50) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 60(60) 16(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 14(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 37(49) 3(52) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 36(59) 2(61) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 27(69) 1(70) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 1(37) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 38(51) 3(54) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 40(55) 3(58) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 2(27) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 39(60) 1(61) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 2(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 28(58) X(58) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 2(44) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 1(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 18(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 37(58) 1(59) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) X(33) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 23(23) 39(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 30(30) 25(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 62(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 72 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 4 X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-08-23 22:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 232054 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE HAITI * INAGUA AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO... SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS... VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA... ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 75.2W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.6N 78.3W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.8N 81.7W...NEAR CUBA MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 23.3N 84.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.7N 87.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 32.7N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 75.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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