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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-24 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 02:46:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 03:24:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-24 04:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240245 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that Laura continues to gradually become better organized. Convection is quite deep on the south side of the circulation, and rainfall is likely very heavy over portions of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A surface observation from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, measured sustained winds of 52 kt with a wind gust to 63 kt a few hours ago. Based on this observation and the system's improved structure, the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt. Laura continues to move swiftly to the west-northwest on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/18 kt. The subtropical high is expected to expand westward during the next couple of days, and that should keep Laura moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest near or over Cuba through Monday and then across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The models suggest that a gradual turn to the northwest is likely by early Wednesday as the storm nears the western side of the ridge, followed by a northward motion after that. The details of the northwest and north turn are quite important when trying to figure out where the core of Laura is going to make landfall. However, at this time there is still a notable spread in the models and their ensemble members, meaning that it is still unclear exactly where the worst weather conditions will occur. The NHC track forecast is little changed from earlier and near the consensus aids. This forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in about 3 days. The tropical storm is expected to move very near or over the entire island of Cuba through Monday, and the interaction with the island should limit strengthening during that time. However, significant intensification is expected when the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico due to a combination of favorable conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although not explicitly forecast, Laura could threaten the northwestern Gulf coast near major hurricane strength. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica through Monday and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas on Monday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Middle and Lower Florida Keys on Monday. 3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.1N 76.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA 12H 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR CUBA 24H 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA 36H 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-24 01:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Aug 2020 23:51:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Aug 2020 21:24:57 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-24 01:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA, HAITI, AND JAMAICA.... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 the center of Laura was located near 20.0, -75.6 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-08-24 01:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 232351 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN CUBA, HAITI, AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 75.6W ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Inagua and the Ragged Islands in the southeastern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Haiti * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 75.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. The maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. An observation in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, recently measured sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. By later Wednesday into Friday Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern Florida on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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