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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 010831 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 21.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 21.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-08-01 07:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010556 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...ISAIAS GETS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 76.7W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF NASSAU ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas this morning, near or over the Northwestern Bahamas later today and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula this afternoon through Sunday. Reports from an Air force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (135 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A private weather station on Darby Island recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida late today and tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. From Friday night through Tuesday: South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-01 04:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010248 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time, indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt, also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between 25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since 00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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