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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-23 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 45.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-22 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222039 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's structure has continued to improve, with a more well-defined eye becoming apparent in visible and microwave satellite images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from T4.0/65 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT is 4.0. Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 70 kt as a blend of the satellite estimates. The hurricane has begun to gain some latitude, and the initial motion is just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since earlier this morning, with a persistent mid-tropospheric ridge to Douglas's north expected to be the main driving force for the entire 5-day forecast period. Douglas is forecast to turn west-northwestward by this evening, and then maintain that heading with some increase in forward speed through day 4 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. A bend back to the west is then expected at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast lies right along the forecast path from the previous advisory through 60 hours, although it has been shifted slightly north on days 3-5 based on an overall shift of the guidance envelope at those times. Confidence in the track forecast at this stage is rather high. Intensity-wise, low shear and sea surface temperature of 28-29C favor continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate for the next 24 hours. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble all bring the intensity near or at major hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with these models and lies near the upper bound of the guidance envelope given the favorable conditions. Some weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours due to cooler waters, but since vertical shear is not expected to increase until around day 4, the weakening rate is likely to be gradual. This forecast increases the chance that Douglas could maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, and all interests on the islands should monitor the forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Douglas Public Advisory Number 10
2020-07-22 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 222038 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 130.9W ABOUT 1570 MI...2525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1690 MI...2715 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Douglas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 130.9 West. Douglas is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this evening, and a west- northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Douglas could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-07-22 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222038 PWSEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 30(30) 36(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) X(35) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-22 22:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222038 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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