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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-27 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270858 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 46(51) 10(61) 1(62) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) 1(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 52(57) 10(67) X(67) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 17(35) 2(37) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 54(66) 14(80) 1(81) X(81) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 16(40) X(40) X(40) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 33(51) 1(52) X(52) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 32(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 105W 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 15N 105W 50 9 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 105W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 42(46) 5(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 3 16(19) 34(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 8 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ZIHUATANEJO 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 12(25) 2(27) X(27) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-27 10:58:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270858 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...BROAD NORA EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 103.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 103.5 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-27 10:57:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270857 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 103.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-27 10:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 270857 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 5 12(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 X 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 7(25) 2(27) X(27) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 2(24) 1(25) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 2(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 3(29) 1(30) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 22(30) 2(32) 1(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 35(47) 12(59) 1(60) X(60) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 4(48) 1(49) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 47(57) 7(64) X(64) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) X(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 53(63) 8(71) X(71) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 4(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 54(76) 2(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 2(46) X(46) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 12(12) 64(76) 17(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 29(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 13(53) 1(54) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 8(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 38(77) 3(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) 3(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) 11(78) 1(79) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 10(49) X(49) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 63(71) 9(80) X(80) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) X(50) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 16(62) 1(63) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) 1(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 56(60) 12(72) 1(73) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 10(39) X(39) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 11(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 9(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 6(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) 2(33) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 15(49) 1(50) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 12(51) 1(52) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 9(53) 1(54) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 11(36) 1(37) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) 1(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) X(35) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) 1(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 28(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 37 22(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ISLE OF PINES 34 87 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLE OF PINES 50 17 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-27 10:57:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270857 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Radar data from Grand Cayman and satellite imagery indicate that Ida is becoming better organized just to the north of Grand Cayman. The convection has become more concentrated near the center, and the radar data is showing increasing curved banding. In addition, the pressure at Grand Cayman fell to 1003 mb, showing that the central pressure is lower than observed by the aircraft mission yesterday afternoon. Based on a combination of the Grand Cayman observations and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Ida near 12Z. After the earlier wobbling, Ida seems to have resumed a northwestward motion of 320/13. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba this afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous forecast through 48 h based on the initial location. However, the 60 and 72 h positions are similar to the previous forecast, and thus there is no significant change to the forecast landfall area in Louisiana at this time. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as impacts will extend far from the center and the average 72-hour track error is around 120 miles. There continues to be some southwesterly shear affecting Ida due to the storm's location between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level anticyclone to the east. Some decrease in the shear is expected during the next 24 h, and that, combined with a moist environment and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow steady to rapid strengthening until the cyclone makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. The new intensity forecast is slightly stronger than the previous forecast, and it now calls for Ida to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt before landfall. It should be noted that this intensity is lower than that forecast by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Florida State Superensemble. After landfall, Ida should weaken as it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. Based on the available guidance, there remains higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will approach and impact the Gulf coast during the weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the Cayman Islands, and they are expected in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today, where a dangerous storm surge is also possible in areas of onshore flow. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 4. Ida is also expected to produce heavy rains across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley starting Sunday into Monday, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 20.0N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 21.5N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH 24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.1N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 28.7N 90.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 30.1N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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