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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-27 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 36(49) 4(53) X(53) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 43(57) 3(60) X(60) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 12(35) 1(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 2(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) 1(27) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 5( 5) 38(43) 37(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 39(40) 17(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 10 38(48) 8(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 8 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-27 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-08-27 13:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 81.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located by reconnaissance aircraft and weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 81.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac this morning, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-08-27 13:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 076 WTPZ34 KNHC 271136 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM NORA SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, AND MICHOACAN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 103.7W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 103.7 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-27 11:00:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270900 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 The convective structure of Nora this morning continues to look a bit disheveled, with the majority of the deeper convection still located to the south and west of the mean low-level circulation center due to 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. More recently, however, there are a few deeper convective tops attempting to develop on the northeast side of the broad vortex. A helpful ASCAT-A pass at 0307 UTC revealed that the circulation remains quite elongated, with two distinct mesovorticies, one to the southwest embedded in the convection, and another to the northeast. The current center estimate roughly splits the difference between these two points. The peak wind retrieval from that scatterometer pass was also 43-kt with a few higher rain-contaminated values. Assuming a bit of instrument undersampling, the current intensity is set to 45-kt for this advisory. Nora motion continues to gradually bend rightward, with the latest motion estimate at 300/10 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, mid-level ridging to the north of Nora is gradually being eroded by a shortwave trough propagating westward across the Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to create a weakness in the ridge that should allow Nora to begin gaining more latitude later today. While the models are in decent agreement with this poleward turn, there still remains some spread on how sharp this turn will be, and whether or not the tropical cyclone will directly impact the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest deterministic ECMWF and UKMET runs continue to forecast Nora to remain offshore of mainland Mexico, while the GFS and Canadian models explicitly show Nora making landfall in 36-48 hours. While the track guidance envelope has narrowed some, the multi-model consensus aids have changed very little this cycle. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA consensus aid and GFEX, which is a simple blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast solutions. This forecast track still brings Nora close to Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California in around 72 hours, though uncertainty by that time frame remains high, related to the degree of land interaction Nora will encounter prior to that point. Nora continues to be impacted by northeasterly vertical wind shear, though this shear is still forecast to subside over the next 12-24 hours. As long as Nora stays far enough offshore, the reduction in shear in combination with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures and ample deep-layer moisture favor strengthening. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast still indicates intensification with Nora forecast to become a Hurricane on Saturday. This intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, especially after 36 hours, because a subset of the guidance aids (HWRF, HMON, GFS) bring Nora inland after this time, substantially disrupting the storm's circulation. However, since the latest NHC forecast track keeps Nora far enough offshore, I have elected to follow closer to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean intensity aids, which show continued intensification after 36 hours. After 72 hours, weakening is anticipated due to possible land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur. Needless to say, this intensity forecast hinges on the track of Nora remaining offshore of mainland Mexico, and this intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, especially after 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 96H 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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