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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-26 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262051 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 The overall satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has continued to gradually improve today. Visible imagery and very recent observations from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the circulation has continued to become better defined. In addition, the convective activity has become a little better organized in a band around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation, and the system is likely near tropical storm strength. However, the initial intensity remains 30 kt pending the aircraft fully sampling the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 325/12 kt. The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance continues to take the system northwestward around the southwestern side of well-established deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move over portions of western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Although the track guidance envelope has tightened this cycle, increasing confidence in the overall forecast scenario, some shifts in the track are still likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center, and the average NHC track forecast error at day 3 is around 120 miles. The lastest NHC track forecast is close to the previous official forecast, and lies between the TCVA and HCCA consensus aids. There is some evidence of some light to moderate southerly shear over the system, but with the cyclone moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea the shear should not hinder intensification, with steady strengthening anticipated during the next 12 to 24 hours. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, it will be traversing a warm eddy, and this feature, combined with a favorable upper-level wind pattern and a moist atmosphere, is likely to result in steady to rapid strengthening on Saturday and Saturday night. The NHC intensity forecast again brings the system to near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the global model guidance that has consistently showed significant deepening of the system over the Gulf of Mexico over the past several model cycles. Therefore, as mentioned this morning, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth Friday. Dangerous storm surge is possible Friday in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, where there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday, especially along the coast of Louisiana. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later tonight or Friday morning. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 18.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-26 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 262045 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X 7( 7) 12(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 1(25) X(25) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 2(25) 1(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 1(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 7(27) 1(28) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 36(52) 2(54) X(54) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 12(39) 1(40) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 15(52) 2(54) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 19(60) 1(61) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) 1(27) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 13(67) 1(68) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 9(33) X(33) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 67(85) 2(87) 1(88) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 53(56) 3(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 3(36) X(36) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) 4(45) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 21(67) 2(69) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 2(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 59(63) 8(71) 1(72) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 10(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 30(67) 2(69) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 1(34) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 25(70) 1(71) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) 1(37) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 34(49) 3(52) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 2(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 31(61) 2(63) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 2(31) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 29(62) 2(64) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 2(32) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 13(40) 1(41) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 3(29) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 3(44) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 27(43) 3(46) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 21(47) 2(49) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 1(21) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 3(33) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 2(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 2(33) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 1(25) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X 42(42) 19(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) HAVANA 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 79(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 28(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLE OF PINES 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 37 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GRAND CAYMAN 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-26 22:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Friday, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The depression may begin to bring rainfall and potential flooding impacts to the central Gulf Coast by early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-26 22:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 363 WTNT24 KNHC 262044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 79.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.7N 81.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.7N 84.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.6N 87.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 90.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.9N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.6N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-26 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Scatterometer data from around midday showed that Nora has an expansive circulation with tropical-storm-force winds nearly reaching the coast of Mexico. The data also showed a possible center embedded within a larger area of light winds, but it is possible that there's another similar feature farther west where the instrument did not sample. Nora's winds remain 35 kt based on the ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, and the center has been placed between the two dumb-belling vorticity maxima. Even with the updated position, Nora is moving toward the west-northwest (285/8 kt), to the south of mid-level ridging over the southern United States. A shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies is expected to erode the ridge over the next 12-24 hours, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest by the weekend. Even with the GFS's solution of multiple swirls consolidating over the next day or so, the 12Z run shifted left and now shows Nora potentially moving inland over Mexico farther west than it had in previous runs. A few of the other models--for example the HWRF and HMON--also bring the center inland as well, but the bulk of the interpolated model trackers continue to keep Nora just offshore but very near the coast of southwestern Mexico in about 48 hours. Model spread remains larger than normal, but no significant changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast based on the latest guidance suite. After passing southwestern Mexico, Nora is expected to be over Baja California Sur or the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5. Moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Nora, but that shear is expected to decrease to a less-intrusive magnitude during the next 24 hours. Along with warm sea surface temperatures of 28-30 degrees Celsius, a moist mid-level environment, and upper-level divergence, Nora is expected to strengthen in the coming days. The rate of intensification could, however, be tempered by Nora's large size and structure. Assuming Nora does not move inland over southwestern Mexico, the storm is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday and then possibly continue strengthening up until the point it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Much of the intensity guidance is based on scenarios showing Nora moving inland, which is suppressing the intensity consensus aids. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly based on the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since the parent ECMWF model does not show Nora moving inland. Given Nora's larger wind field, tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach the coast of Mexico earlier than expected. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Hurricane Watch issued earlier today also remains in effect. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR 120H 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Berg
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