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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-04 21:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 2100 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 120.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.2N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 16A
2020-11-04 18:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041746 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1200 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA WINDS DECREASE FURTHER BUT IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 85.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have discontinued all of the coastal warnings for Nicaragua and Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move across Honduras later this afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more hours. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.. Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should gradually decrease today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-11-04 15:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 041457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-11-04 15:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041457 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ETA WINDS DECREASING BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 85.2W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Laguna de Perlas. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more hours. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.. Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should gradually decrease today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-11-04 15:57:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 041456 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z...INLAND AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.9W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 84.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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