je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 184 WTPZ45 KNHC 040852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection near the center along with some banding features well displaced to the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity guidance models. Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040852 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 200 AM PDT Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ODALYS CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 118.5W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 118.5 West. Odalys is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys should begin weakening by Thursday, and could become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040852 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 118.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-04 09:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040852 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 14A
2020-11-04 06:46:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 903 WTNT34 KNHC 040546 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 84.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple of days while the center of Eta moves inland over Nicaragua and Honduras. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern Nicaragua near the path of the center. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through this morning. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [643] [644] [645] [646] [647] [648] [649] [650] [651] [652] [653] [654] [655] [656] [657] [658] [659] [660] [661] [662] next »