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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-04 15:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041444 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then. Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position. While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-04 15:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 ...ODALYS MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 119.2W ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 119.2 West. Odalys is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today followed by a gradual turn toward the west and then west-southwest as its forward speed decreases by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Odalys is forecast to begin weakening on Thursday and become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-04 15:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 041440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-04 15:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 119.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 119.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-04 13:13:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041212 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Corrected Time Zone Information Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection near the center along with some banding features well displaced to the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday, the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken, with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3 days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity guidance models. Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. As Odalys weakens later this week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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