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Tropical Storm Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-04 03:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 040238 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Odalys Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-04 03:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040237 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odalys Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 ...ODALYS COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 117.2W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 117.2 West. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. A turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast by late this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible overnight, but Odalys should begin weakening by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-04 03:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 040237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 117.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 13A
2020-11-04 00:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 032354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 83.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF ROSITA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is now a strong category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening will continue as the center moves farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a gust to 135 (217 km/h) were measured at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall tracks within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-11-03 21:45:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032045 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days. Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin, and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night. Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours. At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period. Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west- northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple of days. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turn northward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portion of the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario, there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. There is still significant spread among the various global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and intensity forecast later in the period. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hours as Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center has crossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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