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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-11-03 09:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 030853 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 2(18) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 69 4(73) X(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-11-03 09:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030853 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.1W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.1W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 82.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 83.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-11-03 06:51:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 030551 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA NEARING THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 82.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. Eta is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slow westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday, and then move across central portions of Honduras on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast this morning, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before it makes landfall. Weakening will begin after the cyclone moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm). Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas. El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm) This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-03 03:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030259 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb. Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar. The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming, which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137 kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central America through Thursday. Eta's low-level circulation may not survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the period, although this portion of the track forecast remains uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 82.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-11-03 03:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 030253 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 2(17) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 1(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 5(17) 1(18) 2(20) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 80 8(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 57 15(72) 2(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN ANDRES 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LIMON 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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