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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-11-04 03:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040245 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph) with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay rate for inland tropical cyclones. The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours. Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba, and the Bahamas by 96 h. There are some subtropical jet dynamics already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough, significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like the HCCA and ICON consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight. 2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. 4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall, interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Eta through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-11-04 03:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 040244 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 84.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 14
2020-11-04 03:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 040244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 84.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.0 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple of days as the center of Eta moves farther inland over Nicaragua and Honduras. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 72 (116 km/h) were measured at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern Nicaragua. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning: Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm). El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-11-04 03:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 040244 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-04 03:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 800 PM PDT Tue Nov 03 2020 Satellite images indicate that Odalys has not changed much since genesis earlier today. The cyclone still has a large curved band on the western side of the storm, but there is little organized convection to the east of the center. The overall circulation remains quite broad and appears elongated from northeast to southwest. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt at 0000Z, and the ADT and SATCON numbers from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are about the same. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Odalys could strengthen slightly overnight and early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, the models agree that any opportunity for strengthening should end in about 24 hours when Odalys moves into a region of strong southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear. The combination of the increasing shear, cooler waters, and drier and more stable air should cause Odalys to begin weakening by Wednesday night or early Thursday. The cyclone is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday, but that could occur even sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in line with the majority of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over southern Texas and northern Mexico. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion, but at a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the weaker and more shallow Odalys should be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade winds. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.9N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.3N 120.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 18.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 18.1N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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