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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 062036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 062035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 135.6W ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 135.6 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 062035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 135.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 064 WTNT41 KNHC 062034 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt. The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the hurricane is scheduled for this evening. There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land, weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening, and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed. The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough. This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-10-06 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 065 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 A compact central dense overcast with cloud tops occasionally cooling to -80 degrees C has persisted over the center of Norbert throughout the day. A recent ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 41 kt near the center of storm. However, due to the small size of the cyclone, the highest winds are likely not being sampled. Therefore, the initial intensity is being raised to 45 kt, and this is in good agreement with the latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB. Norbert is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear while over very warm waters for the next couple of days. Despite the positive environmental factors in the near term, model guidance is in poor agreement on the future intensity of Norbert. The spread in the forecast intensity has widened even further today, with most of the global and hi-resolution dynamical models weakening the system over the next few days, while the SHIPS and LGEM guidance favor slow strengthening. Since the SHIPS guidance has been the most accurate for Norbert's intensity thus far, the latest NHC forecast is close to, but just below the SHIPS guidance values through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is expected to become moderate, and there are indications that subsidence will increase over the cyclone. These negative environmental factors should inhibit further intensification, and could cause the cyclone to weaken. The steering currents around Norbert are collapsing, as the mid-level ridge over southern Mexico dissipates in response to Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Model tracks diverge by a few hundred miles in varying directions while the steering flow is weak. The consensus guidance is in between these solutions and shows very little movement for the next 72 h. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone, which would result in a slow west-northwestward to westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.4N 106.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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