je.st
news
Tag: number
Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-06 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 062032 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF LA HABANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
delta
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-10-06 19:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061750 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands have discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progresso Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest motion is forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 ft above normal tide levels along the coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
delta
advisory
Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-06 17:09:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061509 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 8
2020-10-06 16:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061454 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 82.6W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progresso Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest motion is forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
delta
advisory
Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-06 16:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061454 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Satellite imagery and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data show that Delta is a very symmetric and compact hurricane. The aircraft reported a tiny 5-nmi-wide eye, which has also been seen in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands, and there is a hint of a pinhole eye in infrared satellite data. The central pressure has continued to fall, with the lastest center dropwindsonde data supporting a pressure of 955 mb. The plane has reported a peak flight-level winds of 109 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 102 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt, making Delta the third major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours, with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC Monday and 1200 UTC today. Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins. The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast. Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By day three a developing trough over the south-central United States is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
delta
forecast
Sites : [735] [736] [737] [738] [739] [740] [741] [742] [743] [744] [745] [746] [747] [748] [749] [750] [751] [752] [753] [754] next »