je.st
news
Tag: number
Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-10-06 16:50:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 061450 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 14(41) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 14(50) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 13(55) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 11(57) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 23(46) 3(49) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 15(43) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) 12(64) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 9(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 27(76) 3(79) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) 3(47) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 2(28) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 46(53) 12(65) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 10(35) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 47(60) 9(69) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 7(39) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 9(46) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 45(55) 9(64) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 7(36) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 47(59) 8(67) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 6(37) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 50(54) 27(81) 2(83) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 29(54) 3(57) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 2(34) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 6(41) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 7(51) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 4(25) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 38(58) 3(61) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 3(33) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 4(34) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 29(37) 4(41) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 23(40) 2(42) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 19(46) 1(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 3(37) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) 2(27) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 1(22) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) 1(31) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25) 1(26) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 6( 6) 36(42) 4(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) MERIDA MX 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 2 95(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COZUMEL MX 50 X 81(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) COZUMEL MX 64 X 58(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 37(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 13(52) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-06 16:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 82.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
delta
advisory
forecast
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie continues to gradually spin down this morning, and the impressive burst of convection that developed near the surface center last night, now consists of a shrinking cloud mass with significantly warming cloud tops. Assuming some weakening since the last night's METOP-A and B scatterometer passes indicating peak winds of 40 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt which is also supported by a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and through a high statically stable air mass. The persistent, harsh vertical shear environment has displaced what remains of the cyclone's associated deep convection well to the northeast of the center. The Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the large-scale models are in general agreement with Marie degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 3 days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The initial motion estimate is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving toward the west-northwest through Wednesday evening. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should continue to gradually spin down while moving westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
marie
storm
Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...MARIE ON LIFE SUPPORT... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 135.1W ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 135.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is forecast to become a remnant low by tonight, and a trough of low pressure in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
marie
storm
Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 061443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Sites : [736] [737] [738] [739] [740] [741] [742] [743] [744] [745] [746] [747] [748] [749] [750] [751] [752] [753] [754] [755] next »