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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 062033 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 4(33) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 28(38) 4(42) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 34(46) 3(49) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 28(45) 2(47) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 22(27) 10(37) 1(38) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 6(48) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 38(58) 3(61) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 48(59) 12(71) 1(72) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) 1(36) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 42(66) 4(70) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 3(37) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 37(70) 2(72) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) 2(39) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 1(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 41(57) 3(60) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 41(72) 3(75) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 3(45) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 39(73) 3(76) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 31(43) 3(46) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 2(25) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 65(80) 10(90) 1(91) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 15(67) 1(68) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 12(44) 1(45) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 3(30) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 35(53) 3(56) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 1(27) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 37(66) 2(68) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 1(38) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) 25(77) 1(78) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 25(45) 2(47) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) X(25) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 29(46) 1(47) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 28(48) 1(49) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 29(55) 2(57) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) X(29) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 16(57) 1(58) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26) X(26) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 1(33) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 12(34) X(34) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 44(53) 9(62) 1(63) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 6(32) 1(33) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 23(51) 1(52) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) X(24) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 1(38) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) 1(31) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 4(42) 1(43) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 17(31) 2(33) X(33) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 1 36(37) 12(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MERIDA MX 50 X 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 94 6(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 30 64(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) COZUMEL MX 64 8 70(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BELIZE CITY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 17 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 26(39) 3(42) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 84.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the province of La Habana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Dzilam Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico * Dzilam to Progresso Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.1 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area. RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches to portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well. SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 106.6W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 106.6 West. Norbert is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is forecast to meander or be nearly stationary over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 107.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 15.5N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-10-06 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 5(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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