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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2020-10-06 04:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 060254 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 13(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 25(46) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 25(48) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 21(53) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 26(45) 9(54) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 23(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 24(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 35(67) 9(76) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 7(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 5(23) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 20(48) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 18(53) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 16(44) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 16(46) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 32(61) 5(66) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 4(36) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 10(32) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 8(42) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 3(27) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) 2(32) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 7( 7) 68(75) 4(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 44(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 31(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 12(12) 53(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 24 16(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND CAYMAN 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 23(50) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-10-06 04:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTMESIA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO TULUM AND FROM RIO LAGARTOS WESTWARD TO PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM * RIO LAGARTOS TO PROGRESSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 80.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-10-06 04:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is beginning to show better signs of organization tonight. Recent satellite imagery depicts a burst of deep convection near the estimated center of the depression with cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. This trend, along with recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates, suggests the system may be nearing tropical storm strength. The initial intensity is perhaps conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory based on earlier T2.0 classifications from TAFB and SAB. The estimated initial motion of the depression remains 340/6 kt. This general motion should continue through the overnight hours as the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over southern Mexico. As the ridge weakens through the middle of the week, the steering currents will break down and the system will likely meander well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico for several days. By days 4-5, global models indicate the ridge should rebuild over southern Mexico, which would eventually support a northwestward motion late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast track shows little change with this advisory, and remains close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The intensity forecast remains challenging with above average spread in the guidance. The environmental conditions generally appear favorable, with low to moderate deep-layer wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance indicates gradual strengthening will occur over the next several days. However, global models including the GFS and ECMWF, along with the HWRF and HMON, forecast little intensity change or even weakening as the system meanders well offshore. This could be a product of the system struggling to separate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or possible upwelling as it drifts over the same general area for several days. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains close to the previous advisory and only shows modest strengthening during the forecast period. This forecast still lies slightly above the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 13.3N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.8N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.0N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 13.8N 106.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 13.7N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2020-10-06 04:48:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 8(21) 4(25) X(25) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 4(15) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Public Advisory Number 2

2020-10-06 04:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060247 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 105.6W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 105.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Tuesday. The depression is forecast to remain nearly stationary through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday, and then little change in strength is forecast through midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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