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Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-22 10:58:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 41
2020-09-22 10:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 220858 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 23.7W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east or east-northeast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday. Paulette is then expected to turn southward and southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-22 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 949 WTNT42 KNHC 220857 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Beta's center has continued to move farther inland since making landfall on the southern end of the Matagorda Peninsula around 10 PM CDT last evening. There have not been any surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and an earlier ASCAT pass indicated that winds over the water had decreased to near 35 kt. That is Beta's estimated intensity at the moment, with the assumption that those winds are still occurring somewhere over water or within the deep convection near the center. Beta has been moving northwestward, or 315/3 kt. Steering currents around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to meander during the next 12-24 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, a mid-level trough over west Texas is forecast to begin moving eastward and should scoop Beta up, causing the storm to move toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas coast through 36 hours. After that time, Beta is expected to turn northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. Because Beta has moved a little farther inland than expected, much of the model trackers have shifted northward, and now only the UKMET and its ensemble mean show Beta's center re-emerging over the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward accordingly and generally lies between the HCCA aid and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Now that Beta's center may not move back out over the Gulf, the intensity guidance indicates that the cyclone will gradually weaken during the next few days. However, since a part of the circulation will remain over water and the system could still produce deep convection, the NHC forecast shows Beta maintaining tropical storm status for another 12 hours or so (a scenario which is above all of the guidance). Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours, and it is expected to become a remnant low in 2-3 days when vertical shear is expected to be well over 30 kt. Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will continue into the ArkLaTex region and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. Storm surge flooding will continue throughout the morning, around the times of high tide along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should continue to follow advice of local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue near portions of the Texas coast within the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 29.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 29.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 32.1N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-22 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220856 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 96.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Sabine Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 96.7 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). Beta is expected to stall inland over Texas today but will then begin to move slowly toward the east-northeast tonight. An east-northeast to northeast motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Beta is likely to begin weakening by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at Victoria, Texas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-22 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 220856 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 34 5 16(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HOUSTON TX 34 17 12(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FREEPORT TX 34 32 12(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 52 10(62) X(62) X(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) ROCKPORT TX 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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