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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 38
2020-09-16 10:29:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160829 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.9N 49.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 38
2020-09-16 10:28:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 935 WTNT22 KNHC 160828 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 49.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 220SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 49.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.9N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.5N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 45.6N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 41.1N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.5N 33.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 35.3N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.5N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.9N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-16 10:26:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160826 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates. Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days. Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm waters. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-16 10:25:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 160825 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-16 10:24:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160824 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 33.9W ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remnant low on Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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