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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY REFUSES TO WEAKEN DESPITE THE SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 33.1W ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Satellite-derived winds indicate that xaximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remannt low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 32.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-09-16 01:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 152354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 88.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) were recently reported at Petit Bois Island, Mississippi. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) were recently reported on Dauphin Island, Alabama. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-15 22:59:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152059 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Latest satellite images show little significant change in the organization of deep convection associated with Karina since the previous advisory. Although the thunderstorms are primarily limited to the southwest semicircle, they remain over the center, and outflow in the northeast semicircle appears somewhat improved in the last couple of hours. A blend of subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 3.0/45 kt from SAB/HFO and 3.5/55 kt from TAFB supports maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt. Karina is crossing the 26C isotherm with an initial motion estimate of 305/10 kt, and much cooler waters lie along the forecast track. Karina is being steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the centered to the northeast and north respectively, and the short term forecast anticipates some relaxation of the recent northeasterly shear as Karina rounds the ridges. This should lead to slow weakening in the short term, and as south to southwesterly shear increases after about 24 hours, Karina will continue to weaken. Simulated satellite imagery based on HWRF guidance indicates the cyclone will become convection-free within about 48 hours, with dissipation following soon thereafter. As Karina weakens and becomes increasingly shallow, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest. The updated track forecast lies along the same trajectory as the previous, but is shifted slightly southward due to recent observed motion, and is near the middle of guidance envelope. The intensity forecast is essentially unchanged and closely follows trends presented by SHIPS and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.5N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 23.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 23.5N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 23.3N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-15 22:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152039 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Overall, Teddy's organization has continued to slowly improve during the past several hours. AMSR microwave imagery near 1630 UTC showed that a low- to mid-level eye feature is beginning to form. The overall convective pattern has also improved, though not enough to increase the intensity estimates at this time, which only range from 45-55 kt. The intensity is therefore held at 55 kt, but it does appear that some intensification is imminent. The AMSR image showed indications of a microwave signature commonly associated with rapid intensification in favorable environments. Low shear and warm SSTs along the forecast track are certainly conducive, though dry air continues to be a possible limiting factor. The dry air is probably the reason that dry slots continue to occasionally appear in IR imagery near the center of Teddy. Rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high; the SHIPS RI gives a 22 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 h while DTOPS shows a mere 1 percent chance. The rest of the intensity models forecast only modest strengthening for the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top of the intensity guidance for the next 48 h and slightly above all of the models after that, but I am hesitant to lower it any further at this time given the recent microwave signature and overall improvement in Teddy's structure. In contrast, Teddy's track outlook remains straightforward, and no changes of note were made to the official forecast. The tropical storm is turning gradually toward the northwest and should begin moving in that direction tonight. A ridge over the central Atlantic should then steer Teddy in that general direction for the rest of the week. The model spread is still much lower than normal, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.6N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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