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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 08:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160646 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight. Satellite images show an eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77- 90 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these data. Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. The intensity forecast has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am advisory. No changes to the track forecast are needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0700Z 15.5N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160645 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM AST (0700 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend and remain well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 160645 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0700Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 08:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160643 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-16 08:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160643 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Justification for this special advisory is to increase the initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt. The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind. However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt. Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the latest model guidance. Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas this week. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Mobile Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0630Z 29.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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