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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-16 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida. The Hurricane Warning has been extended east of Navarre Florida to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between the Mouth of the Pearl River and the Mississippi/Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida * Mobile Bay * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area early Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-6 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-6 ft Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...2-4 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-09-16 04:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160255 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BETWEEN THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-16 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Karina's outflow has improved over the past 6 hours, but persistent deep convection over the low-level center has shown some signs of warming/weakening in the last couple hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 50 kt, primarily based on a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of 45-55 kt from SAB/TAFB/HFO. Karina is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt (310/10 kt), steered by a mid- and upper-level ridge to the northeast and north, respectively. Although some relaxation of the recent northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue in the short-term, gradual weakening is expected as Karina is now over sub-26C water. As Karina rounds the southwestern portion of the deep-layer ridge in about 24 hours, south to southwesterly shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves over even cooler waters and ingests increasingly dry air. This will lead to the demise of the cyclone, and Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in a couple of days, dissipating shortly thereafter. As the system weakens, it will be steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow supplied by a surface high centered to the distant northwest, causing a slowing in forward speed, and a turn toward the west and southwest. The new official track forecast has changed little from the previous, and lies very close to the dynamical consensus TVCE. The new intensity forecast is little changed, and closely follows both the statistical and dynamical guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.3N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-16 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-16 04:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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