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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-16 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the previous and is supported by global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-16 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 162034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 86.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Karina Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 162034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karina Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL SOON BECOME A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 124.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karina was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 124.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Tropical Depression Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-09-16 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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