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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-09-16 19:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161753 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 87.1W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north- northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected this afternoon and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently observed at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier, near Okaloosa Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding. Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals: Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding. Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 39
2020-09-16 16:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161440 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON analysis of 64 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast. This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 43.3N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Public Advisory Number 39
2020-09-16 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161440 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...PAULETTE BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.3N 45.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette was located near latitude 43.3 North, longitude 45.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Thursday. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-09-16 16:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161440 TCDAT4 Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 NWS Doppler Radar and fixes from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, around 0945 UTC with an intensity of 90 kt and a minimum central pressure of 965 mb. Since that time, the center has been inching its way inland over southeastern Alabama and the extreme western portion of the Florida panhandle. The eye has degraded in radar imagery, and Doppler velocities are gradually decreasing. The intensity has therefore been reduced to 70 kt for this advisory. Sally should continue to rapidly weaken today, and once the majority of the circulation is onshore by Thursday morning, it should weaken to a tropical depression. The remnant low is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeastern United States coastline in a couple of days. Radar and the earlier aircraft fixes show that the longer-term motion is 030/4 kt. Sally should continue to move north- northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed as it enters the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies over the next 24-36 hours. A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by 36-48 hours before Sally or its remnants merge with the aforementioned frontal zone. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is slightly north of the previous advisory. As Sally moves inland, ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding will spread northeastward across southeastern Alabama and portions of Georgia and western South Carolina during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is likely across inland portions of Alabama into central Georgia, and possible across western South Carolina, western and central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area in southern Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 30.6N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 31.3N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 32.4N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 34.6N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 39
2020-09-16 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161439 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 660SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.3N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PAULETTE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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