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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-03 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030845 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective canopy. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions are not expected to become less conducive for convective development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing, it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should open up into a trough by then. Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite, and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Omar (AT5/AL152020)
2020-09-03 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OMAR REFUSES TO GIVE IN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 3 the center of Omar was located near 36.3, -62.4 with movement E at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 694 WTNT35 KNHC 030844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 ...OMAR REFUSES TO GIVE IN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 62.4W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 62.4 West. Omar is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The remnant low should dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 458 FONT15 KNHC 030844 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 266 WTNT25 KNHC 030844 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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