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Tropical Storm Omar Public Advisory Number 7

2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020839 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Omar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 ...OMAR TOUGHING IT OUT AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 68.7W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Omar was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 68.7 West. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward the east is forecast by this evening, with a reduction in forward speed occuring through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Weakening should begin by Thursday, with Omar likely to become a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020839 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model diagnostics all indicate that Omar is being blasted by 40-50 kt of northwesterly shear, and yet a sizable area of deep convection has been hanging close to the low-level center for some time now. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications, Omar's initial intensity remains 35 kt. Despite the shear magnitude, Omar could maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 hours or so while the shear direction remains out of the northwest and the cyclone is over the warm Gulf Stream. During this period, the NHC forecast is close to the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. After 24 hours, Omar should begin moving over waters with lower ocean heat content, and the shear is forecast to veer more out of the north. Both of these factors are expected to cause weakening, with Omar likely to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about 2 days. Global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate ahead of a cold front by day 4, which is now shown in the NHC forecast, although the ECMWF shows this happening a day earlier. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast (070/12 kt), embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. This steering pattern is forecast to keep Omar on an east-northeastward or eastward path until it dissipates, but a breakdown of the zonal flow should cause the cyclone's forward speed to slow down gradually during the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS and ECMWF solutions, which both lie along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 36.2N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 020839 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-02 10:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020839 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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