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Tropical Depression Omar Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-03 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Omar Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 ...OMAR MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 60.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Omar was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 60.1 West. The depression is temporarily moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn back toward the east accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday morning. A turn toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast Saturday morning and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Omar is expected to become a remnant low on Friday, or possibly sooner. The remnant low should dissipate by Sunday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-03 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 032034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-03 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 60.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 60.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 60.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-03 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 14:37:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2020 15:24:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-03 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 721 WTNT45 KNHC 031435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Surprisingly, Omar's cloud pattern has changed little since it was classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning. A shapeless deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. The large-scale models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as soon as Saturday morning. Because of Omar's resiliency in such a harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours, then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday. The initial estimated motion hasn't changed either during the past 24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the central Atlantic. This due east heading should continue through Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching mid-latitude frontal zone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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