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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-12 01:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 23:49:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-12 01:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 30.3, -35.3 with movement ENE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 62A
2018-10-12 01:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112348 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 62A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 800 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 ...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 35.3W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF MADEIRA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Madeira Island A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 35.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Friday, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Madeira Island beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-11 22:51:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:51:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 62
2018-10-11 22:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 112048 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Leslie's inner-core structure has improved a little during the day today. A ragged banding eye was present in visible imagery until sunset, though this feature is not apparent in IR imagery. Recent satellite intensity estimates range from 65 kt to 90 kt, so Leslie's intensity has been raised to 75 kt as a compromise of all available estimates. Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 065/18 kt. Confidence remains high that Leslie will continue gaining speed on that heading for the next 24 h or so. Beyond that time, the ensemble spread is still very high, though the 12Z deterministic global models are generally in agreement that Leslie will separate from a mid-level trough, slow down, and turn southward over the weekend. While the exact timing of this turn is still highly uncertain, the multi-model consensus brings Leslie near Madeira Island on Saturday as a tropical storm. The new official forecast shows a very similar track, and the government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that island. While the exact path of Leslie is still uncertain, the cyclone is still expected to produce tropical storm conditions over a wide area through Saturday, and interests on Madeira should not focus on the exact track of Leslie. No large changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 h, though some fluctuations are possible, up or down. By 36 h, Leslie will reach much cooler waters and encounter an increase in wind shear which should lead to steady weakening. The intensity guidance is in surprisingly good agreement given the continued large track spread, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope from 36 h onward. By 96 h, odds are increasing that Leslie could lose all of its convection and become post-tropical, though this possibility still depends heavily on Leslie following a track similar to the NHC official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 29.9N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 31.0N 33.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 32.5N 27.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 33.3N 21.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 17.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 30.9N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 29.0N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 16/1800Z 28.0N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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