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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 58

2018-10-10 22:40:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 102040 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 41.9W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 41.9W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 42.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 40.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 33.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.0N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.0N 21.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N 26.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 41.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Leslie Graphics

2018-10-10 16:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 14:49:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Oct 2018 15:22:06 GMT

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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 57

2018-10-10 16:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101446 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Leslie has continued to get better organized this morning, and several recent microwave overpasses indicate that the hurricane is maintaining a well-defined mid-level eye. However, objective and subjective intensity estimates have not increased, so the intensity has been held at 65 kt. All of the intensity guidance forecasts that Leslie will resume intensifying later today. Given that the hurricane is located in a low shear environment and crossing over the warmest waters it has encountered in days, this seems very likely. No change was made to the intensity forecast through 48 h. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is still tied to the track forecast, and the farther south and west Leslie remains, the stronger it will likely be. Extratropical transition also can not be ruled out, which would likely result in a higher intensity by day 5 that indicated by the NHC forecast. The official intensity forecast is still close to the model consensus through day 5, but a large range of possibilities exists by that time, from Leslie becoming a weak post-tropical low, to maintaining near hurricane strength. The spread in the track guidance is still very large and confidence in the track forecast is low. The most recent ECMWF ensemble has a 5-day spread of over 1500 n mi, while the 5-day GFS ensemble spread is over 1300 n mi. Leslie is forecast to slow down today and turn toward the east-northeast. A faster motion in that direction is anticipated by tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the northwest. Leslie will then either undergo extratropical transition and lift northward, continue westward and become a remnant low, or separate from the trough and turn back west. The NHC forecast is near the track consensus at all times and no large changes to the forecast were made since the future track of the cyclone has not become more clear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 27.8N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 27.8N 41.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.6N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 30.7N 31.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.5N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 29.5N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 27.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-10 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 10 the center of Leslie was located near 27.8, -42.3 with movement SSE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 57

2018-10-10 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101445 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 42.3W ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 42.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow turn toward the east-northeast is expected today, followed by a faster east-northeast motion from tomorrow through the early weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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